Category Archives: bankers finance

More on Rogoff and Reinhart

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Firedoglake has this up on the *cough* research of Rogoff and Reinhart.

From one of the commenters, letsgetitdone at 16:

I think, finally, that the RR study is an example of the corruption of social science in modern times. I believe that one can show that the study was not just guilty of calculation errors and errors of omission, but that these must be seen as part of a pattern of systematic bias that permeated their whole process of inquiry beginning with their selection of the problem, moving through every decision point in implementing the study, and ending with their evaluation of their evidence and their writing of the result. They made no attempt to do a scientific study maximizing fair comparison of alternative theories having policy relevance, but instead prepared what was essentially a legal brief supporting austerity policies and the Pete Peterson line. The social costs of what they did are strewn all over the globe. See this recent post at DailyKos.

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I agree that if R and R purposely left out data (and the concensus is that they did), then what they did was fraudulent and a deliberate attempt to persuade public opinion towards austerity.
This should be *sounding the bells*  as to how very, very important our public education system is….from  kindergarten through four year colleges….the public needs to be able to understand this stuff in the most basic terms.  And the financial gurus purposely make it difficult to understand for the Jane/John Does of the U.S., to give themselves the upper hand.  Like I said about the university I attended, they made math more difficult than it had to be –the only conclusion one can come to is that they were doing it on purpose to “weed out” people.  This, in turn, means fewer graduates with Math degrees to compete in the job market, enabling them to be paid more $$.  It also means that financial gurus can bullshit people and no one will be the wiser.  When the Wall St. meltdown happened, there were econ people who could not figure the mess out…how are Jane/John Doe supposed to?
With the Liberal Arts degree, I have a basic understanding of statistics from a political science class. We were taught to look for the reasons behind conclusions of research.  Who funded it?  What other work have these researchers done (looking at other work for biases)?  Who benefits from it (will a corporation use the data as an asset or use the data to knock down a competitor)?  If it was a poll, we were taught that anything more than 2% plus or minus of the margin of error was a flawed study–the questions asked were biased in some way or not thorough enough.
That is why one should always question absolutes in science or absolute truth that anyone espouses.  If more people were less intimidated and asked “why” and to say “I don’t understand” to someone trying to buffalo them, the financial gurus and others like them would not be able to get away with the stuff that they do.  Thank God for people like Herndon and the others who seek the truth and are not afraid to speak out.
I followed the link that letsgetitdone had in the comment to dailykos, which in turn had the link to the cepr.net website.
This quote from the cepr website says it all:
This is a big deal because politicians around the world have used this finding from R&R to justify austerity measures that have slowed growth and raised unemployment. In the United States many politicians have pointed to R&R’s work as justification for deficit reduction even though the economy is far below full employment by any reasonable measure. In Europe, R&R’s work and its derivatives have been used to justify austerity policies that have pushed the unemployment rate over 10 percent for the euro zone as a whole and above 20 percent in Greece and Spain. In other words, this is a mistake that has had enormous consequences.
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Minor quibble—as everyone is leaning to, this was not a “mistake”…but a deliberate attempt to misconstrue data to suit their political ideology, and that of Pete Peterson.

Shining the light

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PR Watch has a report up on the growing gaps between CEO pay and worker pay:   http://www.prwatch.org/NODE/12060

This is just wrong.  They’re closing factories and moving them overseas because, as they claim, American workers want too much –safe work conditions and a living wage…

…while CEO’s are making astounding salaries…

I have no words.

The man behind the curtain

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…apparently is Pete Peterson.  He is behind the curtain to economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart’s seriously flawed work that advocated austerity measures:  http://www.prwatch.org/NODE/12065

From the article:

Reinhart, described glowingly by the New York Times as “the most influential female economist in the world,” was a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics founded, chaired, and funded by Peterson. Reinhart is listed as participating in many Peterson Institute events, such as their 2012 fiscal summit along with Paul Ryan, Alan Simpson, and Tim Geithner, and numerous other Peterson lectures and events available on YouTube. She is married to economist and author Vincent Reinhart, who does similar work for the American Enterprise Institute, also funded by the Peterson Foundation.

Kenneth Rogoff is listed on the Advisory Board of the Peterson Institute. The Peterson Institute bankrolled and published a 2011 Rogoff-Reinhart book-length collaboration, “A Decade of Debt,” where the authors apparently used the same flawed data to reach many of the same conclusions and warn ominously of a “debt burden” stretching into 2017 that “will weigh heavily on the public policy agenda of numerous advanced economies and global financial markets for some time to come.” (Note that not everyone associated with the Institute touts the Peterson party line.)

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Reinhart, a senior fellow at Peterson’s Institute and married to an economist also funded by Peterson.  Um-hmmm….

Rogoff, on the advisory board for Peterson.  (things that make your head spin…)

Yep.

(Stephen Colbert covered this, too.  He had Herndon on the show to explain how they discovered the errors.  Herndon is an econ student who was assigned to replicate someone’s study.  He chose Rogoff and Reinhart’s work, and to his surprise, could not replicate it.  Previously, they refused to share their data with others asking to see it, but gave it to Herndon, who found the flawed research that omitted countries that were against the Rogoff and Reinhart hypothesis.)

 

Michigan debates Common Core

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Diane Ravitch has this up on the debate on Common Core education standards in Michigan.  It’s odd that they are debating it after they had accepted it….jumped the gun, maybe?  That seems to be all to common in the education world–some *expert* claims to have the magic bullet for *fixing* education, but that never seems to pan out….

Let the Intimidation begin…

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Another good blog from Diane Ravitch on the bullying in schools…

….not by the kids, mind you, but a teacher under pressure to conform and teach to the test and the principal who, as a commenter put it, has “lost their way”.

As was said–pit the parents and teachers against one another, and *voila*, you have dysfunction….leading to failing schools that can be closed and handed over to the profiteers….

From the blog:

My daughter, who is in the 11th grade, was victimized by her principal and teacher today because she submitted an opt out letter. She was made to feel wrong and unsupportive of her school because she wasn’t going to take the test.

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This is what I was talking about in my previous blog–it can be intimidating even for a parent to speak out–let alone a student who is vulnerable to the teacher’s grades and attitude.

Uppity people who ask questions or protest something they perceive as detrimental are to be dealt with—can’t have that because before you know it, there will be others who will also start asking questions….

 

 

Ripping the Band Aid Off

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Diane Ravitch has a blog up on the new standard, Common Core for the public schools in NYC.

From The Economist comments section:

the new testing regime encourages a wider opening of the class gulf by giving teachers an incentive to compete for students with strong skills, excellent home support, and private resources to purchase any necessary tutoring to get Junior up to snuff. Who will stand up for the child of a poor single parent who can’t afford Khan Academy tutoring, doesn’t know enough algebra to help, and doesn’t have time to walk her/his child through the mountains of test preparation homework dispensed in the months leading up to this?

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Word.  The poor kids with no one at home who can help them and no money for tutoring and coming to school hungry because single Mom can’t afford breakfast…depressing….

An incident popped into my head when reading the comments on the link she provides to The Economist (strange that a story on education would end up there, eh?)  Anyway, being 34, the college I wanted to attend had required I take entrance exams a second time (the first time was the SAT’s in h.s.).  Algebra and Trigonometry were part of the exam.  I didn’t take the college prep courses in high school because I didn’t think I’d ever get to go to college (even though I wanted to)….so you could have knocked me over with a feather when the admissions counselor told me that I passed the Math test and could opt out of the pre-Math courses.  I think I actually laughed that I passed them without taking classes….which goes to show that exams shouldn’t have as much weight as they do.  I mean, I got decent grades in Math (B’s)…but did not know the material before taking the class—it would have been a disaster for me to opt-out.  Maybe, just maybe, I had a few Algebra and Trig problems while in h.s., because, if I recall correctly, textbooks at that time had problems for the next grade level at the back of the book, in order to prepare the students for the next year.  This might explain at least some of it.

Additionally, when I was in college, the ADD was bad and even though I studied my butt off for several hours and knew my subject matter, I still only got B’s and sometimes C’s because of poor test taking.  My mind would be all over the place.  This is another reason that testing shouldn’t be given the weight that it does–I knew the material, but you wouldn’t know it by the test.

Also, the university I began at had a much better support system with excellent tutors available to help unravel the Math mysteries.  The university I went to after the initial classes–the one I graduated from–deliberately made Math very difficult.  I think this was to “weed out” the students…after all, most of the professions that pay well involve Math.  If you have a lot of folks who can do Math, well then, you don’t have exclusivity, do you?  Harder to justify higher salaries when there are more folks who can do those jobs.

Lastly, testing aside, parents DO need to take an active role in supplementing their child’s teacher’s efforts.  AND even question their teachers when appropriate.  I had to do this twice –once when my middle child was having difficulty learning to read.  Her 1st Grade teacher was frustrated and going to label her as “stupid”…I could see the handwriting on the wall. I went to the precious gift of the library and checked out books on teaching kids to read, since I didn’t know how to help her—she was getting stuck on the words “a” , “and” and “the”….I luckily (or guided 🙂 found a book on Dyslexia.  I discovered that she was dyslexic.  And I discovered that I was, too.   Dyslexics have a hard time with a, and, the—because they learn to read by visualizing a picture in their head–b-a-l-l is a round thing they can bounce….they can’t picture a, and,the—because they don’t represent any *one* thing.  I checked out a Phonics book and began sitting down with her every night and eventually she *got it*.  She graduated from the same university many years later 😉

The second time I had to question my child’s teachers was when they were going to “Whole Language” — a stupid program that didn’t teach Phonics.  I wouldn’t have it and protested it.  I got a bunch of flack for it, but I went ahead and checked out the Phonics book a second time to help my third child  to read, too.  Incidentally, I also protested a change in class organization, when they were going to make the 2nd graders switch classes….like they were in middle school…to have two different teachers during the day.  I protested that because I believe the younger kids need to have one teacher for consistency…little ones need that security.  I was sent a condescending note that “they were sorry that I wouldn’t be joining them…”  As if everyone else didn’t have a problem with it, so why did I?

More on Thatcher

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After reading this, I wanted to come back and comment on the fact that she had dementia.  Reagan did, too.

Does anyone else wonder at this?  What about heavy metal poisoning for the cause?  Could the meanness of the world be caused by toxicity?  We know it’s a known fact of mercury poisoning that anger and rage come with it.  The Mayo Clinic’s site on dementia–note that heavy metal poisoning is way down on the list.  It mentions low thyroid, which is good, but depressingly doesn’t mention diet. 

More here from someone who recovered from dementia after adopting a gluten-free diet.

Finally, here’s a report on the connection between criminal behavior and high levels of heavy metals. So much grief caused by toxins…and yet, it’s ignored by the medical profession, the corrections system, the public, etc….

Thatcher

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Protests at her funeral here.

On the Mirror site, someone commented that they should put her in a black bag and put her out with the rest of the trash.  Okay, that’s a little harsh.  But spending  10 million is too, too much, especially for someone who promoted austerity.

Funny how people who advocate austerity measures never include themselves as recipients.